Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9E 0x9ecc…0778 crypto 466 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$384 (-10%) realized −$383 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate63%292W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day32.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$144
14 days−$365
30 days−$421
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$146
sports 30% −$318
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -4.1% -13.2% 30% 30% -31.2%
≤30d 281 -6.4% -15.3% 52% 46% -29.8%
≤90d 465 -3.2% -12.4% 63% 43% -20.6%
all 465 -3.2% -12.4% 63% 43% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 43% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 30% -28.2%
15% -28.4% 21% -35.1%
20% -35.5% 13% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$383
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses292 / 173
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)465 / 466
History coverage36d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day32.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh Bangladesh 5¢ 4¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Belize vs Brazil Jun 24 $119 +$15 +12%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 24 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $9 $0 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2 $0 -21%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $10 −$3 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +27%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 22 $45 −$4 -9%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Bermuda vs Brazil Jun 21 $4 −$1 -30%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 -14%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 $0 -26%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 21 $3 −$2 -61%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $1 +$8 +786%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $222 −$12 -5%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 20 $3 $0 -7%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -92%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -32%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $7 +$9 +126%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $1 −$1 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $4 +$1 +36%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $28 −$24 -87%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Belize vs Brazil SELL Belize 100¢ $134 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 5¢ $5 1h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Belize vs Brazil BUY Belize 91¢ $110 2h
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier: Belize vs Brazil BUY Belize 66¢ $9 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $9 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 6¢ $3 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 6¢ $2 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 11¢ $5 5h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 17¢ $20 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 1¢ $8 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 2¢ $21 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 4¢ $32 31h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 4¢ $36 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 3¢ $15 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 20¢ $1 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 31¢ $1 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL New Zealand 67¢ $2 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY New Zealand 55¢ $2 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL Scotland 20¢ $2 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 10¢ $1 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland SELL Scotland 9¢ $3 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 10¢ $1 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 14¢ $1 36h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 22¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.75 · official $6.75 (match) · 1472 history records