Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9E 0x9ecc…415a sports 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$223 (+28%) realized +$57 · open +$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$316now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$200
sports 29% +$80
crypto 13% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤30d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤90d 12 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +17.0%
all 12 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 50% +17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 50% +17.0%
10% -15.5% 50% +5.8%
15% -23.6% 50% -4.4%
20% -31.1% 50% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$30 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$316
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$166
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $150 $316 +$166 (+111%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 +$38 +188%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $25 +$44 +172%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 23¢ $10 2h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $25 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $20 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 24¢ $10 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 30h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $10 30h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 32¢ $26 30h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 36¢ $25 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 38h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $315.76 · official $315.76 (match) · 20 history records