Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:02:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ecd…7764 other 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 70% +$8
other 14% +$14
politics 8% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -10.4% -19.0% 43% 14% -7.4%
≤90d 7 -10.4% -19.0% 43% 14% -7.4%
all 25 +5.9% -4.2% 52% 8% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 8% -5.6%
10% -13.4% 4% -14.6%
15% -21.7% 4% -22.8%
20% -29.4% 4% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×8.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.59 per $1 lost it wins $11.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage465d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $63 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $48 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $77 +$4 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $19 +$4 +22%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 13 $29 $0 -0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $5 +$15 +340%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 05 $3 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "the blacks" by March 28? Mar 30 $13 $0 +1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Mar 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Mar 20 $1 $0 -25%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 15 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $3 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $33 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $28 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $63 2h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $55 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $19 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $57 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $56 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $20 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $10 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $17 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $44 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $58 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $20 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $38 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $32 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $7 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $25 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $59 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 22¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 22¢ $18 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $11 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.80 · official $1.32 (match) · 88 history records