Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:45:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ed0…3706 politics 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 418d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-1%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$9
other 35% −$1
world 22% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 20 -5.9% -14.9% 40% 0% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 0% -10.8%
10% -23.0% 0% -19.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -27.1%
20% -37.3% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

418d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage418d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $5 $0 -10%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? May 08 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 24 $126 −$1 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 24 $16 −$1 -4%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Apr 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in his first 100 days? Apr 24 $128 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runof Apr 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? Apr 24 $2 $0 -11%
Will Marcela-Lavinia Șandru advance to the Romanian Presidential Elect Apr 23 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $15 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 22 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $23 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $24 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $33 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $38 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 25¢ $22 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $22 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 5d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 24¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 25¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 25¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $33 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 38¢ $4 353d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 42¢ $1 374d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 42¢ $3 374d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? BUY No 97¢ $1 374d
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el BUY No 98¢ $2 388d
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? SELL No 95¢ $125 416d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL Yes $3 416d
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th SELL No 99¢ $18 416d
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th BUY No 100¢ $18 416d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL Yes $2 416d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL Yes $0 416d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL Yes $1 416d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL Yes $0 416d
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can SELL Yes $0 416d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.08 · official $0.00 (match) · 71 history records