Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:21:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ed3…a16b crypto 941 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$490 (+0%) realized +$490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate83%792W / 158L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day22.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$33
14 days+$33
30 days+$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$803
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -5.6% -14.6% 87% 24% -8.4%
≤30d 76 -5.6% -14.6% 87% 24% -8.4%
≤90d 399 -2.9% -12.1% 80% 28% -9.7%
all 950 -1.3% -10.7% 83% 28% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 28% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 13% -18.3%
15% -27.0% 10% -26.2%
20% -34.2% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$74 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses792 / 158
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)950 / 941
History coverage110d ⚠
Avg bet$173
Trades / day22.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 950 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $96 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $82 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $95 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 24 $43 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 24 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 24 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $44 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $45 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $82 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $93 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $93 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $93 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $88 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $95 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $46 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $44 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $43 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $48 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $48 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $40 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records