Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ed4…c4f2 other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$266 (-5%) realized −$267 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate24%38W / 122L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$64
14 days+$156
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$317
tech 4% +$54
sports 2% −$32
politics 0% −$5
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +31.1% +18.7% 50% 50% +31.5%
≤30d 24 -5.0% -14.1% 38% 38% +22.7%
≤90d 103 -22.3% -29.7% 31% 18% -11.3%
all 160 -28.1% -35.0% 24% 16% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 16% -14.4%
10% -41.2% 15% -22.6%
15% -46.9% 14% -30.1%
20% -52.1% 14% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$18 · ×2.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$267
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses38 / 122
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 162
History coverage175d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+2%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 110 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $35 +$68 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $47 −$45 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $45 +$58 +131%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $27 +$73 +270%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $49 −$47 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $43 +$80 +185%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$65 +169%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $75 +$26 +35%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $73 +$82 +113%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $16 −$14 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $12 −$11 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $92 +$114 +123%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $29 −$27 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $7 −$6 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $46 +$57 +126%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $13 −$12 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $298 −$238 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $98 −$45 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $72 +$6 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $188 −$188 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $85 +$95 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $48 −$41 -85%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $157 +$12 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $75 +$4 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $157 +$8 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $61 +$39 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 27 $278 +$22 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 25 $178 +$381 +214%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $187 +$13 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $128 +$72 +56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $95 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $35 3d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $45 6d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $9 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 8d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $49 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $11 14d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 14d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.31 · official $64.32 (match) · 492 history records