Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9E 0x9ed5…ceef crypto 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 409d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$3
politics 31% −$2
sports 22% +$5
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.1% -1.3% 67% 33% -3.0%
≤30d 3 +9.1% -1.3% 67% 33% -3.0%
≤90d 7 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 14% -7.1%
all 43 +0.7% -8.9% 42% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 2% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

409d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage409d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 71¢ 70¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli Jun 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will BNB dip to $200 in April? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff Jun 25 $21 +$6 +27%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Apr 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? Apr 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? Mar 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? Feb 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 26 $780 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 26 $800 −$1 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 18? Jan 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jan 16 $800 $0 +0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 16 $800 −$1 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $794 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on December 26? Jan 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? Jan 13 $30 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 December 8-14? Jan 13 $11 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Dec 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 3? Dec 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will Mike Matusow win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Dec 03 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $3.00 on November 6? Dec 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Oct 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Sep 25 $32 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 4? Aug 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ximena Rincón win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 04 $380 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 22 $9 $0 +1%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 27 $42 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 27 $10 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 27 $38 $0 -0%
Will Cătălin Cîrstoiu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 29 $320 $0 -0%
Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $335 $0 -0%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York May 23 $345 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 12 $352 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $338 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $20 1h
Will Civic Platform (GP) gain the most seats in the next Russian parli BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 31d
Netanyahu out by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $33 31d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff BUY T1 78¢ $21 31d
Will BNB dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $20 64d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? BUY No 100¢ $16 64d
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $66 73d
Will Monica Rodriguez win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $66 73d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 23-29? BUY No 100¢ $14 91d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $46 100d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $15 100d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 100d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 100d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 SELL No 100¢ $779 150d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 150d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $180 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 150d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $600 150d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $774 150d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 150d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $300 150d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $500 150d
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $797 150d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 28? BUY No 100¢ $10 150d
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 160d
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open? SELL No 100¢ $798 160d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on January 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $4 160d
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $397 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.09 · official $20.09 (match) · 121 history records