Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9ee0…6b74 other 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,473 (-1%) realized −$1,474 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%28W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,736per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$7
14 days−$32
30 days−$190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,796
politics 40% −$127
sports 12% +$414
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -3.7% -12.9% 8% 3% -9.7%
≤90d 102 +0.9% -8.7% 8% 4% -9.6%
all 153 +1.7% -7.9% 18% 12% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 12% -10.0%
10% -16.8% 12% -18.6%
15% -24.8% 11% -26.5%
20% -32.2% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,221) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$23 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized−$1,474
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses28 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,736
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $295 $296 +$1 (+0%)
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $271 $271 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $1,595 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 24 $1,631 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $247 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $275 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,387 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $1,119 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $526 +$3 +1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $4,169 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $2,668 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $5,565 −$7 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $5,732 −$6 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,660 −$6 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $7,611 −$8 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,943 −$4 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,023 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,748 −$8 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $77 +$52 +67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,317 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $4,002 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May? Jun 02 $904 +$1 +0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $2,333 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $3,753 −$4 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $7,059 −$6 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $872 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,450 −$3 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $905 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,682 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $3,157 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 26 $1,069 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,070 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $4,259 −$4 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $62 +$30 +48%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 23 $47 +$66 +140%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,040 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $80 +$35 +44%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $4,901 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $271 1h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $277 40h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $278 42h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 42h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 45h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $266 47h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $266 2d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $263 3d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $263 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $275 4d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $275 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,018 7d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,020 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,118 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,119 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $432 7d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $432 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,348 8d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,350 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,196 9d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,198 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,126 9d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,128 9d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,351 10d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,343 11d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,345 11d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $1,356 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.09 · official $567.09 (match) · 580 history records