Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:56:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ee5…9ac2 sports 276 markets active 1h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$558 (-3%) realized −$666 · open +$108
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%110W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$345now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% +$244
politics 16% −$486
crypto 13% −$178
other 2% −$89
world 0% −$59
tech 0% −$27
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -38.2% -44.1% 25% 25% -23.0%
≤30d 4 -38.2% -44.1% 25% 25% -23.0%
≤90d 165 -21.0% -28.5% 44% 36% -11.1%
all 275 -20.8% -28.4% 40% 35% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 35% -13.1%
10% -35.2% 27% -21.4%
15% -41.5% 19% -29.0%
20% -47.2% 13% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$345
Realized−$666
Unrealized+$108
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses110 / 165
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)275 / 276
History coverage153d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 67¢ 98¢ $237 $345 +$108 (+46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $31 −$2 -8%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $51 +$16 +32%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $65 −$23 -35%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$8 -76%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner May 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $35 −$35 -99%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $20 −$8 -37%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 20 $71 +$31 +43%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $5 −$2 -43%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 20 $32 −$21 -66%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $81 +$47 +58%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $30 +$13 +43%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 20 $150 +$21 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $222 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Grou May 20 $5 $0 -5%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner May 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $126 +$49 +39%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $5 −$4 -80%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 20 $30 +$4 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 20 $25 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $110 +$6 +5%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $30 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $51 −$48 -93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - CS Asia Championship May 20 $60 +$5 +9%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $81 +$3 +4%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $18 +$20 +109%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner May 19 $45 +$18 +40%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner May 19 $34 −$33 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 10 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +5%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $1 $0 +46%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $4 −$3 -63%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $24 −$20 -85%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner May 05 $23 −$22 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs REKONIX - Game 1 Winner May 05 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Gen.G Global Academy - Game 2 Winner May 05 $20 −$1 -5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $33 −$32 -98%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 29 $54 −$11 -21%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $12 −$7 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Apr 29 $2 −$2 -96%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $15 −$13 -84%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 29 $26 −$10 -40%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $51 +$122 +239%
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Apr 27 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 +$25 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $239 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL FURIA 25¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 26¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 79¢ $67 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 57¢ $23 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 42¢ $23 47h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $42 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY PlayTime 10¢ $3 30d
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY BC.Game Esports 26¢ $15 31d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $35 31d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 17¢ $10 31d
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 40¢ $31 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs SELL BetBoom Team 92¢ $101 31d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 61¢ $51 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A SELL TYLOO $3 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner SELL TYLOO $11 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY TYLOO $5 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 16¢ $21 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner BUY TYLOO 24¢ $12 32d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 92¢ $128 32d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $10 32d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $20 32d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 71¢ $50 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner SELL Legacy 82¢ $171 32d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner BUY Legacy 71¢ $150 32d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner SELL M80 47¢ $36 32d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 65¢ $51 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $344.80 · official $309.44 · 999 history records