Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9E
0x9ee8…1b93
politics · 276 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$3,599 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3,278 · open +$226
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP politics specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,300
Realized+$3,278
Unrealized+$226
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses143 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions17
Markets (closed)256 / 276
History coverage599d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 17 History 256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$135
7 days+$135
14 days+$135
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $534 $601 +$68 (+13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? No 40¢ 49¢ $353 $429 +$76 (+21%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 72¢ 79¢ $170 $186 +$16 (+9%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 22¢ $158 $165 +$6 (+4%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 76¢ 97¢ $121 $153 +$33 (+27%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 70¢ 98¢ $91 $128 +$37 (+40%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $93 $96 +$3 (+3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? No 22¢ 48¢ $40 $87 +$47 (+115%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $86 $84 −$2 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $44 $71 +$27 (+62%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 48¢ 42¢ $79 $68 −$10 (-13%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 81¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+23%)
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 40¢ 8¢ $97 $19 −$78 (-80%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner GamerLegion 21¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) Tatsuro Taira 40¢ 0¢ $143 $0 −$143 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner FaZe 22¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Fight to Go the Distance? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $68 $0 −$68 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 PARIVISION 25¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$69 +134%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $71 +$29 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $300 −$72 -24%
Will Ala Stanford be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $180 −$175 -97%
Will Chris Rabb be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $118 −$115 -97%
Will Sharif Street be the Democratic nominee for PA-03? May 20 $2 −$2 -96%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $163 +$87 +53%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 11 $72 +$209 +290%
Will the Liberal Democrats win the second-most council seat elections May 11 $8 +$11 +133%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $42 −$42 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $54 +$67 +124%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $67 +$133 +198%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 10 $58 +$54 +93%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $20 +$85 +414%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $151 +$99 +65%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $145 −$143 -99%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 10 $70 −$68 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants May 09 $82 +$78 +95%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 09 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in May 08 $196 −$195 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $51 +$44 +86%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? May 03 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Raja Krishnamoorthi be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illin May 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election? May 03 $25 −$25 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $61 +$46 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 1 Winner May 02 $10 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 02 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 700 council seat elections in May 02 $11 −$11 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 02 $42 +$31 +73%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 01 $54 +$27 +50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $114 +$56 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 26 $90 +$78 +87%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Apr 26 $35 +$58 +166%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 26 $88 +$111 +127%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers Apr 25 $45 +$44 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Apr 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Jasmine Crockett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Apr 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 20 $8 +$7 +93%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union addr Apr 19 $68 −$68 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 50% −$53
world 21% +$3,767
sports 21% +$31
other 7% −$181
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $20 56m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 81¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in BUY 10¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $79 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 41¢ $5 2h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 16h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $20 19h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $31 19h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $22 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 70¢ $20 19h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $29 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $50 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 21¢ $9 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 10¢ $9 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 25h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 25¢ $8 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $54 3d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $5 3d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $2 3d
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 49¢ $10 3d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 6d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 24¢ $132 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 7¢ $10 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 14¢ $9 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 14¢ $10 14d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 17¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +26.7% +14.6% 67% 67% +41.7%
≤30d 11 -10.1% -18.6% 45% 45% -22.4%
≤90d 54 +2.8% -7.0% 48% 48% -9.2%
all 256 +14.3% +3.4% 56% 53% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 53% -0.3%
10% -6.5% 47% -9.8%
15% -15.5% 41% -18.5%
20% -23.8% 35% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,299.72 · official $2,309.51 (match) · 1216 history records