Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:53:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9ee9…cf4e other 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%84W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$13
14 days−$5
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$11
sports 20% +$7
crypto 5% +$2
world 2% −$7
culture 1% −$8
politics 1% −$2
finance 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 48% -6.4%
≤30d 114 -9.1% -17.8% 55% 40% -13.1%
≤90d 152 -3.0% -12.2% 51% 39% -8.4%
all 171 -6.7% -15.6% 49% 39% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 39% -9.7%
10% -23.7% 31% -18.3%
15% -31.0% 23% -26.2%
20% -37.8% 20% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses84 / 87
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)171 / 172
History coverage116d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 171 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 26 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +16%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +4%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +23%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 +$1 +3%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 +$2 +105%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +6%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +16%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1 $0 +26%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +31%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 $0 +3%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $40 +$2 +4%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +5%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $3 $0 +6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 $0 +6%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 $0 +27%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 $0 +20%
Matheus Cunha: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 +$2 +206%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 +$1 +140%
Vinícius Júnior: 2+ goals Jun 25 $1 +$1 +120%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +11%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +27%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 +$1 +50%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 $0 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $37 +$7 +18%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 +$1 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $12 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $32 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $1 1h
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 16h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 97¢ $20 16h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 17h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 18h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1 18h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $1 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 20h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $1 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 47¢ $2 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 95¢ $11 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 74¢ $8 20h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 79¢ $1 21h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.31 · official $1.31 (match) · 338 history records