Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9E 0x9eea…281d sports 422 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ Covers last 532d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,993 (-12%) realized −$18,986 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%186W / 227L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$365per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 533d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$6,962
sports 36% −$3,825
other 14% −$3,308
world 5% −$2,428
crypto 4% −$2,529
economics 2% +$683
weather 1% −$1,688
tech 1% −$737
culture 0% −$172
finance 0% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -51.6% -56.2% 33% 33% +10.9%
≤30d 51 -30.8% -37.4% 27% 24% -27.7%
≤90d 53 -29.7% -36.4% 28% 25% -27.7%
all 413 -14.3% -22.5% 45% 33% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 33% -13.6%
10% -29.9% 24% -21.9%
15% -36.7% 18% -29.4%
20% -42.9% 13% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$153 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized−$18,986
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses186 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)413 / 422
History coverage533d ⚠
Avg bet$365
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 94¢ 94¢ $130 $129 −$1 (-1%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $44 $61 +$17 (+38%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $34 $10 −$23 (-69%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $9 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 19 $117 +$53 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$8 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$20 -27%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $59 +$7 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$6 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$15 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$10 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$17 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -25%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $33 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $120 −$46 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$40 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $77 −$39 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $136 −$95 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $209 −$44 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $79 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $150 +$16 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $130 −$26 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $214 −$39 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $79 −$72 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 11 $125 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $59 +$63 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $110 −$105 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $168 −$31 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $242 −$60 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 11 $105 −$80 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $95 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$118 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$49 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $68 +$18 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $47 −$20 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $57 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$10 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $65 −$36 -55%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 10 $295 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 94¢ $130 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 27h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $2 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 27¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Down 17¢ $7 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $4 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? SELL No 97¢ $66 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $272.23 · official $272.29 (match) · 3500 history records