Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:56:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9eeb…b9a8 crypto 345 markets active 0h ago coverage 756d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$529 (+1%) realized +$530 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate77%264W / 80L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$115per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$74
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$367
other 42% +$85
world 2% +$1
economics 2% −$1
politics 1% +$14
weather 1% −$4
sports 0% +$2
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +13.8% +2.9% 55% 39% +0.5%
≤30d 50 +13.5% +2.7% 56% 38% -0.1%
≤90d 55 +10.5% -0.0% 58% 35% -3.1%
all 344 -4.3% -13.4% 77% 16% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 16% -8.5%
10% -21.7% 13% -17.2%
15% -29.3% 11% -25.2%
20% -36.2% 10% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

756d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$530
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses264 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)344 / 345
History coverage756d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 344 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 53¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$8 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$31 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$47 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$20 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$116 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$66 +1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$21 +78%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $14 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $35 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.82 · official $25.71 · 705 history records