Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:12:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9eef…f64f other 8 markets active 8h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-21%) realized −$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$11
sports 37% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -32.5%
≤30d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -32.5%
≤90d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -32.5%
all 7 +4.5% -5.5% 29% 29% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 29% -32.5%
10% -14.5% 29% -39.0%
15% -22.8% 14% -44.9%
20% -30.4% 14% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage5d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +388%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $35 −$8 -22%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $15 −$10 -62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.36 · official $0.35 (match) · 16 history records