Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ef0…b8a0 crypto 440 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$119 (+0%) realized +$90 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate94%394W / 25L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$7
crypto 19% +$79
tech 18% +$15
sports 12% +$243
world 6% −$271
politics 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 108 +1.6% -8.1% 96% 6% -9.3%
≤90d 268 +1.8% -7.9% 96% 4% -9.1%
all 419 -1.8% -11.1% 94% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 3% -9.4%
10% -19.6% 3% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 2% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$26 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$1,384
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses394 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)419 / 440
History coverage142d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 419 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $670 $670 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 68¢ $198 $238 +$40 (+20%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 51¢ 53¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+3%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 83¢ 84¢ $41 $42 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $29 $29 +$1 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $600 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $400 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 37¢ 24¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-34%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $8,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Solana reach $320 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Solana reach $300 by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $280 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Yes 38¢ 14¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? Jun 16 $143 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $669 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $599 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $395? Jun 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 9? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 9? Jun 09 $536 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on June 8? Jun 08 $74 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 8? Jun 08 $351 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $340 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $440 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $460 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 3? Jun 03 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 01 $110 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 01 $70 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $181 −$156 -86%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 May 25-31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 25-31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $120 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 May 25-31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $70 1h
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $195 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $143 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $669 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 4d
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $395? BUY No 100¢ $55 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $20 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $40 8d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $150 8d
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $315 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $386 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 8d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $5 9d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $450 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $336 9d
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $74 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $1 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 9d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $70 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,383.88 · official $1,383.91 (match) · 1012 history records