Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ef1…5aca sports 2120 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 60d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$412 (+2%) realized +$361 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%1046W / 1124L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day40.1pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$1,466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$862
7 days−$499
14 days+$26
30 days+$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$2,627
other 14% +$68
finance 0% −$10
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 405 -55.1% -59.3% 25% 25% -23.5%
≤30d 1030 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -0.4%
≤90d 2170 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 48% -4.2%
all 2170 -1.6% -11.0% 48% 48% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 48% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 44% -13.4%
15% -27.3% 38% -21.8%
20% -34.4% 33% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$1,466
Realized+$361
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses1046 / 1124
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions78
Markets (closed)2170 / 2120
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day40.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 78 History 2170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Karolina Muchova 69¢ 100¢ $24 $35 +$11 (+45%)
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 29¢ 100¢ $10 $35 +$25 (+245%)
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Jacob Fearnley 64¢ 100¢ $21 $32 +$11 (+54%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Henry Searle 56¢ 100¢ $17 $31 +$13 (+78%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Arthur Fery 56¢ 88¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+56%)
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Geoffrey Blancaneaux 63¢ 87¢ $22 $30 +$8 (+38%)
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Yasmine Mansouri 92¢ 96¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+5%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ 85¢ $28 $30 +$1 (+5%)
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Bernard Tomic 87¢ 96¢ $27 $30 +$3 (+10%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 50¢ 82¢ $18 $29 +$11 (+65%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 81¢ 81¢ $28 $29 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 81¢ 80¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli Giorgio Tabacco 75¢ 77¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+3%)
Royan: Raphael Perot vs Robin Bertrand Raphael Perot 68¢ 86¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+27%)
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Thanasi Kokkinakis 66¢ 74¢ $23 $26 +$3 (+12%)
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Karolina Pliskova 74¢ 72¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic Ksenia Zaytseva 72¢ 72¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Fenerbahce 70¢ 71¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Alex de Minaur 83¢ 82¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa Mana Kawamura 68¢ 68¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 73¢ 76¢ $23 $23 +$1 (+3%)
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Bernardo Munk Mesa vs Carles Cordoba Carles Cordoba 66¢ 75¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 85¢ 66¢ $30 $23 −$6 (-22%)
Poznan: Gonzalo Bueno vs Tomasz Berkieta Gonzalo Bueno 72¢ 76¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+6%)
Parma: Enrico Dalla Valle vs Alexander Weis Enrico Dalla Valle 69¢ 74¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 416 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Ningbo Rockets Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 6, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 1, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 14, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 3, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 18¢ $2 3m
ITF Dinard: Anastasiya Kuparev vs Carla Grignac BUY Carla Grignac 47¢ $5 7m
ITF Mohammedia: Diae El Jardi vs Zeel Desai BUY Diae El Jardi 45¢ $10 18m
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa BUY Mana Kawamura 68¢ $24 36m
Asuncion 2: Ignacio Parisca vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 54¢ $19 50m
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 65¢ $21 1h
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 31¢ $10 1h
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 31¢ $1 1h
ITF Luque: Josefina Estevez vs Tiziana Rossini BUY Tiziana Rossini 33¢ $4 1h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 81¢ $29 2h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 24¢ $9 3h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 29¢ $10 4h
ITF Milano: Giorgio Tabacco vs Raffaele Ciurnelli BUY Giorgio Tabacco 75¢ $26 5h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo BUY Alejandro Tabilo 52¢ $2 5h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 56¢ $20 5h
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee BUY Gerard Campana Lee 32¢ $11 5h
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli BUY Alvaro Guillen Meza 49¢ $17 6h
Poznan: Mathys Erhard vs Frederico Ferreira Silva BUY Frederico Ferreira Silva 52¢ $18 6h
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis BUY Thanasi Kokkinakis 72¢ $3 6h
ITF Gyula: Jeremy Schifris vs John Sperle BUY Jeremy Schifris 17¢ $6 7h
ITF Tokyo: Sora Fukuda vs Shunsuke Nakagawa BUY Shunsuke Nakagawa 34¢ $12 7h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 81¢ $29 7h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Nina Radovanovic BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 72¢ $25 7h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 69¢ $24 7h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ $29 7h
ITF Mohammedia: Polina Kuharenko vs Vaidehi Chaudhari BUY Polina Kuharenko 41¢ $4 7h
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Edouard Villoslada vs Carles Rojas BUY Carles Rojas 45¢ $11 7h
Poznan: Pedro Boscardin Dias vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 68¢ $24 8h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Yanki Erel 73¢ $26 8h
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta BUY Lucie Urbanova 61¢ $22 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,466.38 · official $1,464.95 (match) · 3500 history records