Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ef5…99eb world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$2
other 11% −$1
crypto 9% $0
politics 5% −$2
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% +$1
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -9.8%
all 36 -5.4% -14.4% 33% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 3% -9.9%
10% -22.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage250d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 66¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $57 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $69 +$1 +1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $56 −$2 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $112 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 +9%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 -7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $122 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $17 $0 -1%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will G2 Esports win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $18 $0 +2%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 22 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 21 $17 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Oct 21 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in October? Oct 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October? Oct 20 $18 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film) by KPop Dem Oct 19 $19 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $19 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 17 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 15h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 19h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $31 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $52 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $2 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 33h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $2 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $43 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 37h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $56 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $61 8d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $60 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $0 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $56 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $56 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $55 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.43 · official $51.00 (match) · 153 history records