Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9E 0x9ef6…8437 sports 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$651 (+8%) realized +$665 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%185W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,821now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$800
7 days+$819
14 days+$819
30 days+$819
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$649
sports 25% +$27
crypto 4% −$11
politics 2% −$54
world 0% −$8
culture 0% $0
economics 0% −$15
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 59% +9.2%
≤30d 22 -5.5% -14.5% 64% 59% +9.2%
≤90d 68 +3.4% -6.4% 68% 53% +8.6%
all 367 -4.8% -13.9% 50% 44% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 44% -1.7%
10% -22.1% 42% -11.1%
15% -29.6% 35% -19.7%
20% -36.5% 30% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$1,821
Realized+$665
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses185 / 182
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)367 / 371
History coverage413d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $1,400 $1,384 −$16 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,013 +$741 +73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $287 −$287 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $604 +$196 +32%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $403 +$110 +27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $303 +$120 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $305 +$409 +134%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $72 −$72 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $306 −$306 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $55 +$30 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $50 +$22 +44%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 +$12 +29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart Jun 23 $20 +$6 +27%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$11 +10%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$5 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$14 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Apr 08 $7 +$5 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 08 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 05 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 05 $2 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 05 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 05 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 05 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 05 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 05 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 04 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 04 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 04 $2 −$1 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $36 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,414 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 17¢ $410 2h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 21¢ $287 5h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 8¢ $41 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $403 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 9¢ $67 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $604 8h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $72 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $303 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $306 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $55 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 28h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 30h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY No 85¢ $100 33h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 77¢ $40 33h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY 41¢ $25 34h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $101 35h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Harriet Dart BUY Zeynep Sonmez 78¢ $20 37h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 77¢ $20 37h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $70 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $11 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,821.22 · official $1,821.22 (match) · 807 history records