Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ef7…d0cb other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$37 (-17%) realized −$36 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$6
sports 11% $0
crypto 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.4% -23.4% 50% 50% -49.5%
≤30d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 56% -13.6%
≤90d 9 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 56% -13.6%
all 9 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 56% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 56% -13.6%
10% -15.0% 33% -21.9%
15% -23.2% 33% -29.4%
20% -30.7% 33% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$36
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 53¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Over 55¢ 44¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 23 $4 −$8 -187%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$22 +180%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$3 +14%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $11 +$8 +70%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$64 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $5 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 26¢ $17 3h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $5 5h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $23 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 8h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 58¢ $11 27h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 9d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $47 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $38 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $40 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.07 · official $9.59 (match) · 41 history records