Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9E 0x9ef7…e891 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$343 (+70%) realized +$373 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$354
7 days+$340
14 days+$340
30 days+$340
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$312
sports 13% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +41.7% +28.2% 31% 31% +76.1%
≤30d 29 +41.7% +28.2% 31% 31% +76.1%
≤90d 29 +41.7% +28.2% 31% 31% +76.1%
all 29 +41.7% +28.2% 31% 31% +76.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.2% 31% +76.1%
10% +16.0% 28% +59.2%
15% +4.8% 28% +43.8%
20% -5.5% 28% +29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +95% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +95% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +51% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$11 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$373
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $20 $30 +$10 (+50%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-48%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 +$355 +1382%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$12 +114%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -93%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +66%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -88%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$101 +980%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$13 +130%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $36 +$21 +57%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$3 -31%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 +$27 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 20¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $15 25h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 36h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 36h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 36h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 44h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 44h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 46h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 46h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 46h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 46h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 36¢ $24 47h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.75 · official $102.10 · 60 history records