Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9ef9…d0c5 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 514d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%20W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$3
other 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 +0.8% -8.8% 40% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 2% -9.5%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

514d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses20 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage514d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon dip to $132 in April? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tesla reach $578 in November? Dec 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 02 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $1,025 −$1 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $978 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $998 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $996 −$1 -0%
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? Mar 02 $2 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Spurs Feb 26 $13 +$13 +96%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16? Feb 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Feb 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-02-26? Feb 25 $2 $0 -4%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Feb 23 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 23 $10 $0 -2%
Heat vs. Bucks Feb 23 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Feb 21 $6 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 21 $1 $0 -10%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Feb 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bucks vs. Wizards Feb 18 $17 −$1 -7%
Bulls vs. Knicks Feb 17 $8 $0 +0%
Shaq's OGs vs. Candace's Rising Stars Feb 16 $3 $0 -5%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-19? Feb 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Monaco win on 2025-02-12? Feb 11 $7 $0 -2%
Lakers vs. Jazz Feb 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-11? Feb 10 $11 $0 -2%
Hornets vs. Nets Feb 10 $14 +$1 +5%
Will West Ham win on 2025-02-15? Feb 08 $3 $0 -3%
Pacers vs. Lakers Feb 07 $5 $0 -5%
Maple Leafs vs. Flames Feb 04 $11 $0 +0%
Blues vs. Utah Feb 02 $29 $0 -0%
Devils vs. Sabres Feb 02 $5 $0 -2%
Mavericks vs. Pistons Jan 31 $19 −$2 -11%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? Jan 30 $12 $0 -1%
Kings vs. 76ers Jan 28 $4 $0 -14%
Raptors vs. Hawks Jan 25 $13 $0 +2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26? Jan 25 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Amazon dip to $132 in April? BUY No 100¢ $40 59d
Will Tesla reach $578 in November? BUY No 100¢ $47 206d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $47 245d
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 332d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? BUY No 100¢ $2 363d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 394d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $9 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 394d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 394d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $10 before June? BUY No 100¢ $1 394d
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 423d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 431d
Will Ethereum hit $5,000.00 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 455d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $1 456d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 100¢ $2 465d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 474d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 474d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $1,024 474d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $1,025 474d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $977 474d
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $978 474d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $997 474d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $998 474d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $995 474d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $996 475d
Dogecoin above $0.26 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will XRP reach $3.80 by February 28 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 480d
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 481d
Will Real Madrid or Atlético de Madrid advance in the UCL Round of 16? SELL Atlético Madrid 37¢ $12 481d
Will Barcelona win La Liga? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 482d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.40 · official $35.40 (match) · 128 history records