Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:47:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9efc…10e2 world 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+0%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate21%7W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$5
14 days+$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$2
other 25% −$2
finance 4% −$4
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 11% -10.6%
≤30d 27 -3.2% -12.4% 22% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 33 -2.7% -11.9% 21% 3% -9.5%
all 34 -5.5% -14.5% 21% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 3% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses7 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage484d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $69 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $100 −$3 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $64 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $65 −$4 -6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $46 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 +$2 +21%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $32 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $87 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $244 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $185 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $143 +$9 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $141 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $43 −$4 -8%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $58 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $119 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $179 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $282 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 31 $83 +$4 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $69 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $185 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $48 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $221 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $468 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 13 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 13 $221 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $223 −$1 -0%
Northern Iowa vs. Belmont Mar 05 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $71 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $1 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $5 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $29 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $61 16h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $8 16h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 61¢ $48 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $50 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $25 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 71¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $38 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $10 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $34 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.68 · official $70.76 (match) · 214 history records