Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9E 0x9efc…2905 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-5%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$37
14 days−$123
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$79
sports 29% −$39
crypto 12% −$181
politics 2% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +44.5% +30.7% 43% 43% +6.8%
≤30d 25 +1.7% -7.9% 48% 48% -12.2%
≤90d 32 -7.4% -16.2% 41% 41% -19.4%
all 32 -7.4% -16.2% 41% 41% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 41% -19.4%
10% -24.2% 41% -27.1%
15% -31.5% 41% -34.2%
20% -38.3% 34% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$42 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage35d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $57 +$38 +66%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $23 +$77 +342%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $12 +$37 +303%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$21 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $60 +$39 +66%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $76 +$53 +69%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $86 +$49 +56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 +$68 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$50 +99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$53 +103%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $71 +$30 +43%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $80 +$68 +85%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bernie say "Tariff" in Maine? May 25 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Bernie say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" in Maine? May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Leinster win? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 24 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $15 +$49 +320%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 49¢ $51 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 95¢ $95 47h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 56¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $50 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 11¢ $14 6d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $12 6d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 42¢ $43 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $48 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No $0 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $99 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 44¢ $30 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $60 7d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $39 7d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $36 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $76 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 38¢ $51 8d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $86 9d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $99 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $80 10d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $101 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 12d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $51 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $104 15d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $51 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records