Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f03…4ce0 other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$44
sports 21% −$19
politics 9% −$7
crypto 8% −$9
economics 7% −$5
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.1% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage141d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $56 $56 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $647 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $222 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $206 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $139 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $338 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $487 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $143 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $58 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $323 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $575 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $722 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $346 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $271 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $303 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $194 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $317 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $133 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $261 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $201 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $184 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $423 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $458 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 15m
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $56 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $56 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $17 3h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 5h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $56 14h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $56 16h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 23h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 24h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 32h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 33h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $57 35h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $57 36h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 46h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 47h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 2d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.87 · official $55.87 (match) · 1444 history records