Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9F 0x9f04…4e5f sports 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$196 (-2%) realized −$193 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate61%79W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$376
7 days+$385
14 days+$385
30 days+$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$49
other 22% +$78
crypto 16% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +160.1% +135.4% 80% 73% +55.6%
≤30d 15 +160.1% +135.4% 80% 73% +55.6%
≤90d 130 +17.3% +6.1% 61% 58% -8.4%
all 130 +17.3% +6.1% 61% 58% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.1% 58% -8.4%
10% -4.1% 52% -17.2%
15% -13.3% 48% -25.2%
20% -21.8% 38% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +31% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$60 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized−$193
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses79 / 51
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage73d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $247 $244 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 +$119 +1132%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $24 +$22 +91%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 22 $80 +$56 +70%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? Jun 22 $62 −$22 -35%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $30 +$12 +42%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $24 +$36 +147%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 21 $10 +$85 +873%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $63 +$49 +78%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $52 +$28 +54%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $17 +$1 +4%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 21 $30 −$7 -22%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $76 +$17 +22%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $21 +$4 +19%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +27%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5 May 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $139 +$51 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $47 −$45 -95%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 16 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 16 $27 −$26 -94%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 16 $200 −$187 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Apr 16 $38 −$36 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 16 $26 +$13 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 16 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 16 $18 +$10 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 16 $11 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Apr 16 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 16 $21 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 16 $26 +$45 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Apr 16 $10 +$17 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 16 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Apr 16 $39 +$23 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Apr 15 $29 +$29 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Apr 15 $103 −$97 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 15 $78 +$64 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 15 $30 +$19 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 15 $24 +$27 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 15 $38 +$5 +13%
Magic vs. 76ers: O/U 220.5 Apr 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Kings vs. Canucks Apr 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Houston Astros Apr 15 $49 +$30 +62%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Apr 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Apr 15 $88 −$69 -79%
Club Cerro Porteño vs. CDP Junior FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Devils vs. Bruins Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 14 $80 −$78 -98%
Sabres vs. Blackhawks Apr 14 $21 +$10 +50%
Stars vs. Maple Leafs Apr 14 $63 +$35 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 59¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 1h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 58¢ $33 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 99¢ $46 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? SELL Yes 24¢ $9 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 100¢ $100 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $24 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 79¢ $24 2h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 2h
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? SELL No 52¢ $14 2h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY Yes 55¢ $34 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 29¢ $6 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $9 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 61¢ $13 2h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $27 2h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 42¢ $30 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 3h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $30 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 35¢ $19 4h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 40¢ $24 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 7h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 100¢ $79 7h
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 35¢ $10 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 64¢ $52 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 SELL Under 64¢ $12 9h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 52¢ $63 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.59 · official $243.59 (match) · 360 history records