Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f06…c019 other 53 markets active 4h ago coverage 324d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%20W / 33L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$5
other 32% $0
politics 14% $0
culture 9% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.3% -13.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 16 +0.7% -8.9% 31% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 20 +0.7% -8.8% 35% 5% -8.8%
all 53 +0.1% -9.4% 38% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 2% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 2% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses20 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage324d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $63 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -30%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $16 +$9 +54%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $8 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $30 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $29 −$6 -20%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 05 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in August? Aug 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 05 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 03 $3 $0 -3%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 03 $65 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 03 $58 +$1 +1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $60 $0 -1%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $6 $0 +1%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 01 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $4 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $27 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $9 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $22 6h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $31 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $31 12h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $6 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 15h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $32 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 40h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $8 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $24 41h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $9 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $21 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 48¢ $3 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $9 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $35 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $35 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $5 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $28 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records