Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9F 0x9f08…73a8 world 423 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 66d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13,921 (+6%) realized +$13,959 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate71%235W / 94L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$263est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$68,309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$12,410
other 14% +$2,989
crypto 14% +$8,710
politics 6% −$530
sports 5% −$457
economics 4% +$168
finance 3% −$3,242
tech 1% +$55
culture 0% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -12.7% -21.0% 51% 24% +0.8%
≤30d 106 -3.3% -12.5% 55% 23% +0.9%
≤90d 329 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 14% +0.6%
all 329 +2.0% -7.7% 71% 14% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 14% +0.6%
10% -16.5% 10% -9.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.6% 10% -17.8%
20% -32.0% 7% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$542) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$117 vs −$83 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$68,309
Realized+$13,959
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses235 / 94
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Est. fees paid−$263
Open positions95
Markets (closed)329 / 423
History coverage66d ⚠
Avg bet$590
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 95 History 329 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $5,100 $5,415 +$315 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $4,385 $4,370 −$16 (-0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $2,667 $2,872 +$205 (+8%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 80¢ 85¢ $2,651 $2,803 +$153 (+6%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $2,316 $2,537 +$221 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $2,414 $2,206 −$208 (-9%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 89¢ 93¢ $1,960 $2,048 +$89 (+5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 97¢ $1,069 $1,935 +$866 (+81%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? No 97¢ 100¢ $1,884 $1,928 +$44 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 44¢ 64¢ $1,316 $1,922 +$605 (+46%)
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 92¢ $1,641 $1,796 +$154 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 49¢ $1,771 $1,748 −$23 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $1,589 $1,632 +$43 (+3%)
Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $1,699 $1,576 −$122 (-7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $1,448 $1,459 +$11 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 55¢ 97¢ $812 $1,433 +$621 (+76%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 49¢ $1,132 $1,186 +$54 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $1,331 $1,149 −$181 (-14%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,127 $1,134 +$7 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $956 $1,076 +$120 (+13%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? Yes 55¢ 32¢ $1,834 $1,057 −$777 (-42%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1,049 $1,048 −$0 (-0%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 91¢ 93¢ $1,004 $1,027 +$23 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $1,017 $1,002 −$14 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $929 $918 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 15 $145 −$47 -33%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1,293 +$125 +10%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,140 +$204 +18%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $165 −$21 -13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $3,201 +$247 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $190 +$5 +3%
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Jun 15 $415 −$169 -41%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 15 $180 −$80 -44%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? Jun 15 $90 −$15 -17%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 15 $107 −$14 -13%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $51 −$8 -16%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $206 −$36 -18%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -97%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 15 $8 −$7 -91%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $440 −$177 -40%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,017 +$750 +74%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $90 +$54 +60%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 15 $108 +$46 +42%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1,175 +$575 +49%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 14 $174 +$3 +2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $184 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $931 +$7 +1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 13 $52 −$43 -83%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $1,154 +$127 +11%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 12 $883 +$15 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $130 −$97 -75%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $1,064 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $2,772 +$1,996 +72%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $940 −$671 -71%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $128 −$43 -34%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $580 +$7 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $2,321 +$13 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 09 $113 −$110 -97%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $62 +$40 +65%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $296 +$338 +114%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,996 +$4 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $154 +$30 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,644 −$324 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $32 +$3 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $529 −$345 -65%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $272 −$214 -78%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $825 +$338 +41%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $464 +$736 +159%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 06 $7,612 −$375 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,914 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $268 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $479 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $190 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $228 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $76 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $991 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $1,724 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 33¢ $98 1h
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 BUY Yes 26¢ $55 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $4 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $22 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $16 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 5¢ $106 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $151 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $205 2h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $58 2h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $35 3h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 3h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3h
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $430 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $100 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $0 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $71 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68,309.41 · official $68,399.81 (match) · 3500 history records