Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:12:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f09…e2a1 crypto 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 262d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$344 (-0%) realized −$422 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate86%200W / 33L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$387per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$31
14 days−$7
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$355
world 2% +$7
other 2% −$105
sports 1% +$67
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 92% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 66 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 174 +0.1% -9.4% 90% 1% -9.2%
all 233 -2.5% -11.7% 86% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.6%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$31 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

262d coverage
Net worth$1,256
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses200 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)233 / 237
History coverage262d
Avg bet$387
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $90 in June? No 92¢ 97¢ $638 $670 +$32 (+5%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? No 99¢ 99¢ $431 $433 +$2 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? No 99¢ 100¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? No 99¢ 100¢ $39 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 14 $500 −$61 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 14 $390 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? Jun 11 $236 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 10? Jun 11 $58 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 10? Jun 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? Jun 10 $629 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,059 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 8? Jun 08 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $218 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8? Jun 08 $408 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 June 1-7? Jun 08 $458 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $198 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 June 1-7? Jun 07 $890 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $303 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 4? Jun 04 $459 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $456 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 4? Jun 04 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 4? Jun 03 $202 −$24 -12%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $149 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $261 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 2? Jun 02 $152 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $621 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $755 −$6 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $161 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $555 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $246 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May? Jun 01 $230 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May? Jun 01 $479 −$10 -2%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 01 $277 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? Jun 01 $245 +$4 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 25-31? Jun 01 $662 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 29? May 29 $428 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 29? May 29 $396 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on May 29? May 29 $305 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 28? May 28 $273 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $70 in May? May 28 $477 −$12 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? May 28 $298 −$6 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 27? May 27 $568 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $795 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 26? May 26 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 26 $139 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25? May 25 $315 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL No 87¢ $439 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $500 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $106 5h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $394 5h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $426 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $27 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? SELL No 100¢ $399 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $237 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $152 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $5 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $34 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $148 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $230 4d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $39 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 4d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 June 8-14? BUY No 98¢ $5 4d
Will Solana dip to $50 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $58 4d
Will Solana dip to $55 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $99 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $73 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $137 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $598 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $70 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $96 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 10? BUY No 98¢ $98 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $300 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $829 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,255.69 · official $1,249.47 (match) · 961 history records