Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f0c…7ca5 crypto 107 markets active 0h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$325,021 (-56%) realized −$325,021 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%68W / 39L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5,432per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$3,682est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8,995
7 days−$514
14 days−$55,581
30 days−$253,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$271,995
crypto 15% +$5,805
politics 12% −$62,274
other 2% +$2,279
economics 1% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +20.8% +9.3% 71% 51% -10.0%
≤30d 101 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 48% -55.8%
≤90d 101 +9.0% -1.4% 65% 48% -55.8%
all 107 +4.9% -5.0% 64% 45% -60.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 45% -60.6%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 28% -64.4%
15% -22.4% 22% -67.8%
20% -30.0% 19% -71.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$3,216) neutral
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$863 vs −$9,866 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$325,021
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses68 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$3,682
Open positions0
Markets (closed)107 / 107
History coverage594d
Avg bet$5,432
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 107 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $1,511 +$168 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $3,564 +$1,180 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 22 $4,551 −$1,256 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 22 $507 +$123 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $501 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 22 $1,001 +$14 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 22 $502 +$23 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 22 $2,039 −$35 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 22 $1,004 +$53 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 22 $3,040 +$708 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 22 $501 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 22 $510 +$190 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 22 $1,035 +$997 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $1,003 +$38 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 22 $1,026 −$1,026 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $517 −$517 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 22 $512 −$512 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 22 $5,580 +$590 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $517 +$435 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 22 $1,237 −$1,237 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 22 $516 −$516 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $1,035 −$1,035 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 22 $412 −$412 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $2,573 +$1,723 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $504 +$64 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $1,552 +$1,445 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,030 +$725 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$181 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$182 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $207 +$171 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $413 +$355 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $310 +$249 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $413 +$346 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $1,509 +$126 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $516 +$403 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 21 $1,006 +$95 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $1,021 +$420 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $451 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $3,071 +$1,566 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $3,216 +$245 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $2,732 +$611 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $2,227 +$454 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $964 −$955 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $1,038 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 21 $2,522 +$370 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $503 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $504 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $504 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $506 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $508 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $510 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $510 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $509 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $510 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $510 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $500 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $503 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $512 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $512 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $511 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $510 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $507 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $501 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $500 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $501 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $502 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $501 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $502 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $517 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $519 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $502 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 988 history records