Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f0d…ed5a other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$39 (-5%) realized −$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$34
14 days−$55
30 days−$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$140
crypto 13% +$53
sports 1% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -23.7% -30.9% 50% 40% -2.6%
≤30d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 44% -16.3%
≤90d 18 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 44% -16.3%
all 18 +1.2% -8.4% 50% 44% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 44% -16.3%
10% -17.2% 44% -24.3%
15% -25.2% 39% -31.6%
20% -32.5% 33% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$34 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $74 +$76 +103%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$18 +33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $39 +$16 +42%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $137 −$98 -71%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $95 +$53 +56%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $40 −$33 -81%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$32 +374%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $34 −$29 -85%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +86%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $22 +$11 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $93 −$70 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$43 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $150 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $74 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $74 8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 11h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 28h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $39 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 22¢ $40 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $137 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $148 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $95 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $40 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 7d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $22 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $23 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $93 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records