Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f13…65f4 other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$17
politics 30% −$12
sports 10% +$82
economics 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 93 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 127 +3.4% -6.4% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 9% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 7% -18.0%
15% -23.5% 6% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$0 · ×12.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage133d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $252 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $42 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $199 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $198 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $422 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $203 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $388 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $218 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $251 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $173 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $174 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 11 $213 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $195 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $385 −$2 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? May 05 $3 $0 +2%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $222 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $410 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $246 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $224 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $428 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $221 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $424 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $242 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $260 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $812 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $206 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $212 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 08 $200 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 35h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $27 35h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 20d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 21d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $199 23d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $199 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $171 25d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $171 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $198 26d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $198 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $213 26d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $213 26d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $203 27d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $203 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $175 28d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $175 28d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $250 29d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $250 29d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $191 30d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $191 30d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $218 31d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $218 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 33d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $225 34d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $179 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.98 · official $39.98 (match) · 383 history records