Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:34:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9F 0x9f15…bdb3 sports 156 markets active 0h ago coverage 694d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,200 (-4%) realized −$4,065 · open +$865
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%51W / 45L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$484per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1,171est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$21,441now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,436
7 days−$3,680
14 days−$3,680
30 days−$3,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$5,922
politics 3% −$423
world 1% +$1,174
other 1% +$1,938
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 95 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 48% -15.9%
≤90d 95 +10.4% -0.1% 54% 48% -15.9%
all 96 +10.0% -0.4% 53% 48% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.4% 48% -16.3%
10% -10.0% 39% -24.3%
15% -18.7% 31% -31.6%
20% -26.6% 26% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$910) neutral
Persistence
early +32% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$333 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

694d coverage
Net worth$21,441
Realized−$4,065
Unrealized+$865
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses51 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,171
Open positions59
Markets (closed)96 / 156
History coverage694d
Avg bet$484
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 59 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Eva Lys 43¢ 100¢ $1,000 $2,324 +$1,324 (+132%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 53¢ 52¢ $2,000 $1,943 −$57 (-3%)
Set Handicap: Khachanov (-1.5) vs Quinn (+1.5) Quinn 52¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,913 +$913 (+91%)
ITF San Gregorio: Irina Balus vs Maria Toma Irina Balus 86¢ 88¢ $1,414 $1,454 +$39 (+3%)
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Rehberg 63¢ 50¢ $1,657 $1,308 −$349 (-21%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 68¢ 82¢ $1,000 $1,213 +$213 (+21%)
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ 62¢ $1,015 $992 −$23 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ 57¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Los Angeles Dodgers 40¢ 38¢ $1,008 $962 −$46 (-5%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 49¢ 92¢ $486 $922 +$436 (+90%)
Set Handicap: Vekic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Eala 62¢ 64¢ $800 $826 +$26 (+3%)
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Yasmine Mansouri 91¢ 94¢ $753 $784 +$31 (+4%)
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Stefano Travaglia 85¢ 86¢ $453 $458 +$5 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Marton Fucsovics 34¢ 16¢ $1,000 $456 −$544 (-54%)
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Genaro Alberto Olivieri 48¢ 14¢ $1,492 $451 −$1,041 (-70%)
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets McCartney Kessler 49¢ 47¢ $441 $423 −$18 (-4%)
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 32¢ 84¢ $130 $344 +$214 (+164%)
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta Anastasia Safta 36¢ 52¢ $195 $282 +$87 (+44%)
Set Handicap: Bax (-1.5) vs D'agostino (+1.5) Bax 46¢ 50¢ $258 $277 +$20 (+8%)
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych Viktor Frydrych 33¢ 38¢ $225 $262 +$37 (+17%)
Set Handicap: Perricard (-1.5) vs Moutet (+1.5) Moutet 61¢ 100¢ $133 $218 +$85 (+64%)
Set Handicap: Erel (-1.5) vs Tabata (+1.5) Erel 53¢ 50¢ $223 $211 −$12 (-5%)
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Carole Monnet 39¢ 40¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+1%)
Set Handicap: Kym (-1.5) vs Kokkinakis (+1.5) Kokkinakis 79¢ 84¢ $188 $201 +$13 (+7%)
Set 1 Winner: Sarksian vs Frydrych Frydrych 37¢ 42¢ $177 $198 +$21 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Petja Drame vs Nadja Mladenovic Jun 16 $335 +$172 +52%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Pavlos Tsitsipas vs Peru Bayo Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Set Handicap: Piros (-1.5) vs Galan (+1.5) Jun 16 $48 +$29 +60%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) Jun 16 $10,160 −$731 -7%
Set 1 Winner: Gadient vs Cembranos Jun 16 $80 +$104 +130%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
ITF Sapporo: Yuna Sugiyama vs Miyu Nishiwaki Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Goto vs Matsuda Jun 16 $288 −$288 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Corvi vs Hejtmanek Jun 16 $419 −$419 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Yecong Mo vs Joshua Charlton Jun 16 $457 −$457 -100%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $1,025 −$1,025 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Kusuhara vs Shu Matsuoka Jun 16 $811 −$811 -100%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $2,000 −$159 -8%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $403 −$64 -16%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Defne Cirpanli vs Eugenia Zozaya Menendez Jun 16 $8 +$2 +23%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $201 +$31 +16%
ITF Tokyo: Saki Tange vs Colin Sinclair Jun 16 $1,000 +$281 +28%
Set 1 Winner: Mujakic vs Jankanj Jun 16 $302 −$302 -100%
ITF Klosters: Matteo Covato vs Noah Karma Jun 16 $951 +$284 +30%
ITF Klosters: Anais Gabriel vs Mara Guth Jun 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Set Handicap: Zhu (-1.5) vs Roh (+1.5) Jun 16 $261 +$205 +79%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $222 +$380 +171%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Joaquin Guilleme vs Niccolo Ciavarella Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $1,262 −$1,262 -100%
ITF Taipei: Reina Goto vs Misaki Matsuda Jun 16 $101 +$115 +113%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $1,260 +$112 +9%
Set Handicap: Zhu (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) Jun 16 $456 +$195 +43%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $1,000 +$176 +18%
ITF Zhengzhou: Wushuang Zheng vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 16 $43 +$42 +96%
Set Handicap: Sherif (-1.5) vs Serban (+1.5) Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Gea (-1.5) vs Matusevich (+1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Tauste: Diana Marcinkevica vs Jimar Geraldine Gerald Gonzalez Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Zarate (-1.5) vs Gomez (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 16 $755 −$361 -48%
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,200 +$439 +37%
Set 1 Winner: Chen vs Zhu Jun 16 $910 +$228 +25%
Set 1 Winner: Wang vs Zhiyenbayeva Jun 16 $11 +$12 +106%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $20 +$3 +15%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $492 +$357 +72%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,000 +$1,174 +117%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $463 +$95 +20%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,000 +$724 +72%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $202 +$76 +38%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $1,000 +$639 +64%
Set 1 Winner: Rodriguez vs Ribeiro Jun 15 $369 +$290 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 33¢ $223 16m
Set 1 Winner: Sarksian vs Frydrych BUY Frydrych 37¢ $177 16m
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 34¢ $1 18m
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 34¢ $1 18m
ITF Monastir: Daniil Sarksian vs Viktor Frydrych BUY Viktor Frydrych 34¢ $1 18m
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Boisson (+1.5) SELL Yastremska 49¢ $9,430 34m
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) BUY Zhang 46¢ $29 35m
Set 1 Winner: Gadient vs Cembranos SELL Gadient 49¢ $183 35m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $54 41m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $2 41m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $2 41m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $3 42m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $1 42m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $129 42m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $1 42m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $125 42m
Set 1 Winner: Wiedenmann vs Seggerman BUY Wiedenmann 35¢ $3 42m
Parma: Luca Wiedenmann vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Luca Wiedenmann 29¢ $2 43m
Set 1 Winner: Urbanova vs Safta BUY Safta 39¢ $47 46m
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta BUY Anastasia Safta 36¢ $194 46m
Set 1 Winner: Urbanova vs Safta BUY Safta 39¢ $2 48m
ITF Bucharest: Lucie Urbanova vs Anastasia Safta BUY Anastasia Safta 36¢ $1 48m
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Mannarino BUY Mannarino 38¢ $12 54m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 49¢ $4 55m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 49¢ $4 55m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 49¢ $3 55m
Set 1 Winner: Kessler vs Volynets BUY Kessler 49¢ $2 55m
Set 1 Winner: Kessler vs Volynets BUY Kessler 49¢ $49 55m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 49¢ $98 55m
Nottingham Open: McCartney Kessler vs Katie Volynets BUY McCartney Kessler 49¢ $331 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,441.31 · official $21,441.39 (match) · 537 history records