Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f19…0ab4 other 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$267 (-11%) realized −$269 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$178
14 days−$417
30 days−$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$392
world 2% −$13
politics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$15
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.0% -43.9% 14% 0% -33.1%
≤30d 41 -1.8% -11.1% 34% 24% -27.3%
≤90d 90 -6.7% -15.6% 40% 23% -25.8%
all 90 -6.7% -15.6% 40% 23% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 23% -25.8%
10% -23.6% 21% -32.9%
15% -31.0% 14% -39.4%
20% -37.8% 11% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$269
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage86d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $37 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $106 −$19 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $35 −$16 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $127 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $232 −$34 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $126 −$86 -68%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $44 −$9 -21%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $206 −$36 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $89 −$43 -48%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $197 +$5 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $80 −$43 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $76 −$21 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $82 −$65 -80%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $49 −$28 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $52 +$75 +144%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $56 −$32 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $62 −$17 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $45 −$35 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $21 +$7 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $32 −$14 -45%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $6 −$3 -43%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 03 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $18 +$12 +66%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$5 -56%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $7 +$15 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $11 −$7 -59%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $12 +$12 +100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 +$11 +230%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 −$3 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $9 +$6 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $6 −$1 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $6 +$11 +205%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 15 $6 −$1 -19%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $14 −$2 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $7 −$3 -37%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 14 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026? May 12 $7 −$2 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 12 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $6 +$4 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $38 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $37 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 2h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $45 2h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $16 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $16 39h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $24 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $34 3d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $19 3d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $38 4d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $35 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $73 4d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $75 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $76 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $19 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $6 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $77 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.44 · official $38.44 (match) · 306 history records