Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f1a…fadc other 32 markets active 0h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$7 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 30L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$360per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$1,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% −$8
crypto 14% $0
world 9% −$1
sports 8% −$1
economics 7% −$1
finance 7% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 30 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 30 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$752) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1,113
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage80d
Avg bet$360
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,079 $1,078 −$1 (-0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close Jun 18 $1,072 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,144 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $24 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Jelena Ostapenko win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Apr 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? Apr 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in April? Apr 17 $752 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close Apr 16 $62 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 16 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $751 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 15 $757 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $822 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 15 $733 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $500B and $600B at market close on Apr 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Discord have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Mar 30 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Mar 30 $67 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 8m
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,058 17m
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $838 1h
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close SELL No 100¢ $232 1h
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $175B and $200B at market close BUY No 100¢ $1,072 1h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 20h
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,143 20h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 21h
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $119 21h
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,002 21h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $24 21h
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 21h
Will Tallon Griekspoor be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $23 21h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $763 22h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $24 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $237 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $1,002 22h
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 35d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $26 35d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 35d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 35d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 35d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 35d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $15 35d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 35d
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 35d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 35d
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? SELL No 100¢ $21 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,113.42 · official $1,113.42 (match) · 102 history records