Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f1c…13f4 sports 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$373 (+23%) realized +$659 · open −$286
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$309
other 9% +$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +49.8% +35.5% 60% 60% +40.9%
≤30d 10 +49.8% +35.5% 60% 60% +40.9%
≤90d 10 +49.8% +35.5% 60% 60% +40.9%
all 10 +49.8% +35.5% 60% 60% +40.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +35.5% 60% +40.9%
10% ← realistic here +22.5% 60% +27.4%
15% +10.7% 60% +15.1%
20% -0.2% 60% +3.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +56% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$207 vs −$126 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$659
Unrealized−$286
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Mandatory 16¢ $95 $0 −$95 (-100%)
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group B Joblife 35¢ $192 $0 −$192 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $98 +$93 +94%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $99 +$94 +95%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner Jun 24 $116 −$114 -98%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $97 −$82 -84%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $164 −$160 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana Jun 24 $200 +$357 +179%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro Jun 24 $95 +$163 +172%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $152 +$142 +93%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $158 +$395 +249%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 100¢ $191 9m
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR - Map 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 51¢ $98 45m
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A BUY Mandatory 16¢ $97 1h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Grou BUY Joblife 35¢ $196 2h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner SELL Enterprise Esports 99¢ $193 2h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 56¢ $76 3h
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Joblife - Map 1 Winner BUY Enterprise Esports 37¢ $23 3h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 48¢ $12 3h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 52¢ $65 3h
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory - Map 1 Winner BUY NAVI Junior 45¢ $38 3h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group SELL Eternal Fire $15 4h
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY Eternal Fire 31¢ $97 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 26¢ $164 4h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana SELL Mananchaya Sawangkaew 99¢ $556 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 30¢ $100 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Mary Stoiana BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 42¢ $100 5h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lulu Sun vs Oceane Dodin BUY Lulu Sun 26¢ $153 6h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro SELL Niels McDonald 100¢ $258 7h
Targu Mures: Niels McDonald vs Francesco Passaro BUY Niels McDonald 36¢ $95 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 19h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $553 21h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $158 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.57 (match) · 23 history records