Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:03:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f23…5547 other 14 markets active 7d ago coverage 170d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$236
14 days−$236
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$185
other 31% −$236
tech 4% +$1
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤90d 10 +1.9% -7.8% 80% 20% -15.6%
all 14 +1.7% -8.0% 86% 14% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 14% -15.1%
10% -16.8% 14% -23.2%
15% -24.8% 14% -30.6%
20% -32.2% 14% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$193 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

170d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage170d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $240 −$236 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $167 +$190 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $144 +$145 +101%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $10 $0 +5%
Will Apple reach $360 in January? Feb 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? Feb 03 $19 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Feb 03 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $240 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $167 17d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 49¢ $144 36d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $152 67d
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $12 96d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $9 102d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 1°C on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $10 110d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $13 119d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $8 134d
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $8 145d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $10 151d
Will Apple reach $360 in January? BUY No 100¢ $13 160d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 164d
Trump out as President in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 176d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records