Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
9F 0x9f24…e803 sports 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-1%) realized −$131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%95W / 62L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$314est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$157
7 days+$24
14 days+$72
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$4
crypto 3% −$252
other 2% −$5
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -17.1% -25.0% 63% 47% -9.1%
≤30d 84 -4.5% -13.6% 61% 40% -10.0%
≤90d 153 -0.7% -10.2% 62% 45% -10.6%
all 157 -2.0% -11.3% 61% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 44% -10.7%
10% -19.8% 24% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 17% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 14% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$52 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses95 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$314
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage138d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko Jun 25 $605 +$127 +21%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 25 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $202 +$39 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $201 +$19 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $201 +$19 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $405 +$46 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $301 +$37 +12%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $403 +$99 +24%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 24 $352 +$90 +26%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $178 −$70 -39%
Plovdiv: Philip Henning vs Andres Santamarta Jun 23 $204 −$146 -72%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $306 −$92 -30%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $402 +$69 +17%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $273 +$18 +7%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $704 +$120 +17%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $110 −$80 -72%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $301 +$47 +16%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $60 −$1 -1%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $13 −$8 -59%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $302 +$56 +19%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $40 −$1 -2%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Terence Atmane Jun 08 $36 −$36 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Niels Visker vs Elias Ymer Jun 07 $108 −$18 -16%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 07 $85 +$7 +8%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Talia Gibson vs Alina Charaeva Jun 07 $77 +$15 +20%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $84 −$5 -6%
Tyler: Karl Poling vs Andre Ilagan Jun 06 $35 +$19 +55%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $98 −$12 -12%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $80 −$17 -21%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $55 +$23 +43%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Centurion 2: Khololwam Montsi vs Alexander Donski Jun 06 $160 +$31 +19%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 05 $105 +$76 +72%
Heilbronn: Marco Trungelliti vs Diego Dedura-Palomero Jun 05 $22 +$3 +14%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $94 −$3 -4%
Makarska: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 05 $100 +$33 +33%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 05 $79 +$7 +9%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $74 −$19 -26%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $35 +$15 +44%
Prostejov: Alex Molcan vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 05 $80 +$45 +56%
Centurion 2: Giles Hussey vs Philip Henning Jun 05 $96 −$93 -97%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 05 $40 +$26 +66%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Tuncay Duran Jun 05 $69 −$14 -21%
Test Series England vs. New Zealand: England vs New Zealand - Who wins Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Makarska: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Noma Noha Akugue Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Tyler: Blaise Bicknell vs Karl Poling Jun 04 $102 +$26 +25%
Makarska: Petra Marcinko vs Barbora Palicova Jun 04 $110 +$7 +7%
Tyler: Edas Butvilas vs Andre Ilagan Jun 04 $20 +$6 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 100¢ $370 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 80¢ $201 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 83¢ $101 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 84¢ $242 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 69¢ $202 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko SELL Petra Marcinko 76¢ $120 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Caty McNally vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 63¢ $101 2h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Duje Ajdukovic 57¢ $13 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $203 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $202 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $201 14h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Teodora Kostovic 100¢ $220 25h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 91¢ $201 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tomas Etcheverry 64¢ $451 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 41¢ $102 27h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 64¢ $303 27h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley SELL Fiona Crawley 98¢ $338 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley BUY Fiona Crawley 87¢ $301 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 100¢ $271 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 85¢ $201 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 88¢ $231 28h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 67¢ $202 28h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue SELL Katherine Sebov 100¢ $442 29h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue BUY Katherine Sebov 63¢ $51 30h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katherine Sebov vs Noma Noha Akugue BUY Katherine Sebov 83¢ $302 30h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic $22 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 26¢ $102 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 25¢ $86 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 21¢ $75 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 677 history records