Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9F 0x9f26…0efc sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 137d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,075 (-29%) realized −$328 · open −$747
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,360
7 days−$1,360
14 days−$1,360
30 days−$1,360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$747
other 38% −$1,360
sports 21% +$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -95.1% -95.6% 0% 0% -95.9%
≤30d 2 -95.1% -95.6% 0% 0% -95.9%
≤90d 2 -95.1% -95.6% 0% 0% -95.9%
all 6 -25.8% -32.8% 50% 50% -52.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.8% 50% -52.7%
10% -39.3% 50% -57.3%
15% -45.1% 50% -61.4%
20% -50.5% 17% -65.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$468 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$328
Unrealized−$747
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage137d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? No 43¢ 0¢ $748 $1 −$747 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $667 −$602 -90%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $758 −$758 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 11 $265 +$119 +45%
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Feb 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Feb 07 $195 +$72 +37%
Nuggets vs. Pistons Feb 04 $287 +$155 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 6¢ $109 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $887 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $11 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $151 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $15 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $9 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $15 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $7 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $75 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $4 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $38 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $8 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $3 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $4 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $37 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $8 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $15 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $8 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $14 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $15 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $7 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $7 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.87 · official $0.87 (match) · 47 history records