Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f26…176f other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$78 (-29%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$48
other 44% −$26
crypto 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.1% -25.9% 25% 25% -39.3%
≤30d 12 -18.1% -25.9% 25% 25% -39.3%
≤90d 12 -18.1% -25.9% 25% 25% -39.3%
all 12 -18.1% -25.9% 25% 25% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 25% -39.3%
10% -33.0% 25% -45.1%
15% -39.4% 25% -50.4%
20% -45.4% 17% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$17 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $45 −$45 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$10 +38%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $10 +$45 +442%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 69¢ $30 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $45 17h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $20 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 69¢ $30 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.65 · official $29.65 (match) · 17 history records