Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f2a…3706 other 795 markets active 0h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$38,765 (-13%) realized −$37,912 · open −$853
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%72W / 680L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$364per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$4,126est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$834
7 days−$2,992
14 days−$4,651
30 days−$17,287
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$6,501
world 14% −$1,643
crypto 14% −$11,287
other 9% −$2,064
tech 4% −$572
politics 3% −$247
finance 3% −$489
weather 1% −$293
economics 1% −$98
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 457 -7.8% -16.6% 8% 2% -14.0%
≤30d 678 -8.6% -17.3% 9% 1% -18.6%
≤90d 752 -7.9% -16.7% 10% 1% -16.6%
all 752 -7.9% -16.7% 10% 1% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 1% -16.6%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 1% -24.6%
15% -31.9% 0% -31.9%
20% -38.6% 0% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1,379
Realized−$37,912
Unrealized−$853
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses72 / 680
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$4,126
Open positions43
Markets (closed)752 / 795
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$364
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ 28¢ $504 $344 −$160 (-32%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 78¢ $282 $270 −$11 (-4%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 46.0 and 48.9 in June? No 76¢ 78¢ $71 $73 +$2 (+3%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.35B? Yes 95¢ 90¢ $58 $55 −$3 (-5%)
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) Q2 investment banking fees be above $2.85B? No 64¢ 46¢ $66 $48 −$18 (-28%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.5B? No 79¢ 82¢ $40 $41 +$2 (+4%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-3%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 62¢ 72¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+15%)
Will Michael Olise win the Silver Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 6¢ $125 $34 −$91 (-72%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 62¢ 44¢ $49 $34 −$15 (-30%)
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Yes 72¢ 66¢ $36 $33 −$3 (-8%)
Will Ezri Konsa be in England's Starting 11? No 60¢ 28¢ $71 $33 −$38 (-53%)
Will Bank of America (BAC) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $1.4B? No 64¢ 74¢ $22 $25 +$4 (+16%)
Will Miguel Almirón score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 22¢ $62 $25 −$37 (-60%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $27 $23 −$4 (-15%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Yes 48¢ 11¢ $96 $22 −$73 (-77%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? No 49¢ 17¢ $62 $22 −$40 (-65%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 15 and June 21, 2026? Yes 29¢ 5¢ $116 $22 −$94 (-81%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 61¢ 40¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Will Paraguay concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 99¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+10%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 95¢ 91¢ $19 $18 −$1 (-4%)
Will Lucas Digne be in France's Starting 11? No 91¢ 86¢ $18 $17 −$1 (-5%)
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Yes 69¢ 33¢ $32 $16 −$17 (-52%)
Will Jude Bellingham win the Bronze Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $134 $15 −$119 (-89%)
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 75¢ 69¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $98 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 15 $8 $0 -5%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 15 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $34 −$1 -3%
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $76 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 15 $38 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $86 −$4 -5%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.60 in June? Jun 15 $46 −$3 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $65 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $8 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 15 $82 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 17? Jun 15 $4 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? Jun 15 $25 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 15 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $44 −$1 -3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $873 −$46 -5%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 15 $1,330 −$62 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will the announcers say "Love" or "Lovely" during the England vs Croat Jun 15 $4 −$1 -20%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 15 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $0 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $334 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $18 −$1 -4%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $64 −$5 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $13 $0 -2%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $12 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 5m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 82¢ $16 7m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 82¢ $16 7m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 41¢ $8 8m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 8m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 8m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $13 10m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 67¢ $13 10m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 65¢ $12 12m
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? SELL No 2¢ $1 15m
Will Emiliano Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? BUY No 7¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? SELL No 68¢ $2 15m
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $2 16m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $3 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 41¢ $9 16m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 16m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 75¢ $7 17m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 75¢ $7 17m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 18m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $1 19m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 56¢ $5 19m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 67¢ $3 20m
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,378.84 · official $1,378.85 (match) · 3500 history records