Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9F 0x9f2b…cced sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$659 (-16%) realized −$704 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%31W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$391
14 days−$695
30 days−$695
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$464
other 44% −$92
crypto 2% −$69
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-44.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -32.1% -38.5% 35% 35% -22.8%
≤30d 95 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 32% -25.6%
≤90d 95 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 32% -25.6%
all 95 -38.9% -44.7% 33% 32% -25.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.7% 32% -25.6%
10% -50.0% 29% -32.8%
15% -54.8% 27% -39.3%
20% -59.2% 20% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$30 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized−$704
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses31 / 64
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)95 / 97
History coverage11d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 97¢ $126 $164 +$38 (+30%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 57¢ 66¢ $49 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -93%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $51 +$42 +82%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $56 +$22 +40%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $88 +$18 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $43 −$42 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $111 −$110 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan Jun 23 $16 −$16 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $67 +$24 +37%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $50 +$52 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $41 +$52 +127%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $61 +$43 +70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$48 +48%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $61 +$38 +62%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $41 +$67 +165%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $107 −$106 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $56 −$38 -68%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$25 +46%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $39 −$18 -47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $140 +$64 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$11 +54%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $111 +$59 +53%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $41 +$29 +72%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Netherlands Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $51 −$46 -91%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $12 +$27 +228%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $15 −$2 -11%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $32 +$11 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $76 −$52 -68%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $81 −$78 -96%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 50m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $77 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $92 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 8¢ $2 4h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies BUY West Indies 18¢ $20 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 91¢ $78 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $56 21h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $61 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 83¢ $106 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $15 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $63 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 25h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $43 27h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $111 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $20 29h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Pakistan BUY Pakistan 4¢ $16 32h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Ireland 10¢ $10 33h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Scotland BUY Scotland 25¢ $20 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $91 42h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $102 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $67 44h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $50 44h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $92 45h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $103 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.65 · official $219.95 (match) · 165 history records