Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

9F 0x9f2c…987c other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 181d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$333 (-45%) realized −$331 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate90%9W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$67per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 181d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-18.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	6	-16.1%	-24.1%	83%	0%	-85.5%
all	10	-9.5%	-18.2%	90%	0%	-77.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.2%	0%	-77.2%
10%	-26.0%	0%	-79.3%
15%	-33.1%	0%	-81.3%
20%	-39.7%	0%	-83.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 53% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -84% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -75% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$328 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

181d coverage

Net worth$290

Realized−$331

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)90%

Wins / losses9 / 1

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 11

History coverage181d

Avg bet$67

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	No	61¢	60¢	$293	$290	−$2 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Apr 21	$331	−$328	-99%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m	Apr 21	$9	$0	+1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	Apr 21	$10	$0	+0%
Bill Clinton charged by March 31?	Apr 21	$11	$0	+2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru	Apr 21	$16	$0	+0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	Apr 21	$16	$0	+0%
Will Tesla reach $548 in January?	Feb 04	$9	$0	+0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?	Feb 04	$11	$0	+0%
Will I Just Might by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week	Feb 04	$12	$0	+1%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?	Jan 06	$16	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	61¢	$296	1h
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	BUY Nuggets	73¢	$331	65d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$10	98d
Bill Clinton charged by March 31?	BUY No	98¢	$11	104d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m	BUY No	99¢	$9	113d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?	BUY No	99¢	$16	121d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru	BUY No	100¢	$16	135d
Will Tesla reach $548 in January?	BUY No	100¢	$9	146d
Will I Just Might by Bruno Mars be the Billboard #1 song for the week	BUY Yes	99¢	$12	155d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January?	BUY No	100¢	$11	169d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?	BUY No	100¢	$16	180d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.40 · official $290.40 (match) · 20 history records