Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f2c…14ab sports 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%170W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% −$14
other 46% −$8
finance 1% −$3
world 0% +$1
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -7.0% -15.8% 50% 50% +12.7%
≤30d 12 -25.7% -32.8% 58% 25% -23.9%
≤90d 215 -21.1% -28.6% 57% 39% -22.4%
all 290 -9.5% -18.1% 59% 43% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 43% -12.4%
10% -26.0% 28% -20.8%
15% -33.1% 19% -28.5%
20% -39.7% 13% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses170 / 120
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)290 / 293
History coverage96d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
BC Zenit vs. Unics Kazan May 25 $2 −$2 -99%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 22 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $2 −$2 -99%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand May 19 $1 $0 +44%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 19 $1 $0 +48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Pla May 19 $2 $0 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics May 19 $2 $0 +6%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees Apr 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 +$1 +67%
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $2 +$3 +156%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qu Apr 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO3) - Europe MENA League Ki Apr 15 $3 $0 +6%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? Apr 15 $1 $0 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Kings vs. Trail Blazers Apr 13 $1 $0 +8%
Bulls vs. Mavericks Apr 13 $1 $0 +23%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 13 $3 $0 +3%
T20 Series Indonesia vs Sweden: Indonesia vs Sweden Apr 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $1 $0 +10%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 13 $1 $0 +13%
Will Columbus Crew win on 2026-04-12? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -55%
LoL: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 13 $2 +$1 +56%
Hornets vs. Knicks Apr 13 $3 $0 +3%
Spread: Magic (-9.5) Apr 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Kansas Jayhawks vs. BYU Cougars (W) Mar 30 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Viktoriya Tomova vs Jennifer Brady Mar 30 $2 +$1 +26%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs aimclub (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 30 $1 $0 +1%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 30 $3 −$1 -19%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zachary Svajda Mar 30 $1 $0 -44%
Counter-Strike: eLITenergy vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Mar 30 $1 $0 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-30? Mar 30 $1 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Mar 30 $1 $0 +36%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 30 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 30 $3 −$2 -63%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will France win on 2026-03-29? Mar 29 $5 +$1 +21%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 29 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs CarritoSpain (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group D Mar 29 $1 $0 -2%
US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Federico Agustin Gom Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 21h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 22¢ $2 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Washington Nationals 95¢ $1 21d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 98¢ $5 21d
BC Zenit vs. Unics Kazan BUY BC Zenit 70¢ $2 21d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 24d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 27d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 67¢ $1 31d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 31d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Pla BUY 9z 99¢ $2 53d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand BUY Bangladesh 69¢ $1 56d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 94¢ $2 57d
Will CD Universidad Católica win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 61d
Will CA Rosario Central win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 61d
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qu SELL Sentinels 100¢ $6 61d
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qu BUY Sentinels 89¢ $5 61d
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 64¢ $1 61d
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO3) - Europe MENA League Ki SELL Team Secret 100¢ $3 61d
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO3) - Europe MENA League Ki BUY Team Secret 95¢ $2 61d
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Secret vs Fnatic (BO3) - Europe MENA League Ki BUY Team Secret 91¢ $1 61d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 61d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 61d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Vitality 66¢ $1 61d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-04-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 61d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 61d
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.56 · official $2.56 (match) · 739 history records