Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:27:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9F 0x9f30…bb5a politics 341 markets active 8h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$195 (+1%) realized +$195 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate97%331W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 74% +$70
crypto 7% +$33
other 5% +$59
world 4% +$6
finance 4% −$20
tech 3% +$12
sports 2% +$20
economics 1% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 49 +1.1% -8.6% 94% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 194 +2.9% -6.9% 98% 4% -8.2%
all 341 +3.2% -6.7% 97% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 10% -9.0%
10% -15.6% 5% -17.7%
15% -23.7% 2% -25.6%
20% -31.2% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$47 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses331 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)341 / 341
History coverage161d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 341 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl Jun 26 $74 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $189 +$6 +3%
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rose Garden Cl Jun 26 $280 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Pool" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 26 $208 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? Jun 25 $201 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MAGA" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $37 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Joe" or "Biden" 10+ times during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $119 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "SAVE Act" or "Save America Act" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Weightlifter" or "Weightlifting" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Eiffel" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Trump say "Secret Service" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $214 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Barack Hussein Obama" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "UFC" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $178 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during June 24 Jun 25 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "MAHA" or "Make America Healthy Again" during June 24 R Jun 25 $210 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Arch" or "Ballroom" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Third term" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $276 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "JD" or "Vance" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $374 +$6 +2%
Will Trump say "Russia" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during June 24 Rally? Jun 25 $274 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Alaska" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 24 $454 +$11 +2%
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" this week? Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Make America Healthy Again" this week? Jun 24 $12 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Obama / Biden" 7+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $126 +$2 +2%
Will Trump say "Muscle" in June? Jun 23 $301 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Manufacturing" this week? Jun 23 $225 +$7 +3%
Will Trump say "Dumb" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Oil / Gas" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $377 +$14 +4%
Will Trump say "Truck" this week? Jun 23 $189 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Rally" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during Pennsylvania events? Jun 23 $220 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Iowa" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Egg" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $127 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Soybean" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Child" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $135 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Drug" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Healthcare Affordability Events May 19 $176 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl SELL No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl SELL No 99¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL No 100¢ $150 8h
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL No 99¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 99¢ $119 8h
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Midterm" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 99¢ $119 8h
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 94¢ $16 8h
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 93¢ $55 8h
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 99¢ $11 8h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
Will Trump say "Thousand" or "Hundred" 10+ times during Rose Garden Cl BUY No 98¢ $44 8h
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL Yes 100¢ $182 8h
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL No 99¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 98¢ $10 8h
Will Trump say "World Cup" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY No 99¢ $109 8h
Will Trump say "Pool" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 8h
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $161 8h
Will Trump say "Death Tax" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 8h
Will Trump say "Pool" during Rose Garden Club Dinner events? BUY Yes 99¢ $208 9h
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rose Garden Cl BUY Yes 100¢ $272 9h
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rose Garden Cl BUY Yes 100¢ $6 9h
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rose Garden Cl BUY Yes 100¢ $2 9h
Will Trump say "Ronaldo" or "Messi" or "Pele" during June 24 Rally? BUY No 99¢ $66 29h
Will Trump say "Tax" 20+ times during June 24 Rally? SELL No 100¢ $15 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1326 history records