Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9F 0x9f30…9a71 other 212 markets active 3h ago coverage 126d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$164 (+36%) realized +$163 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%85W / 122L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$50
14 days+$54
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +147.7% +124.1% 55% 55% +107.4%
≤30d 74 +96.4% +77.7% 47% 43% +50.4%
≤90d 200 +60.6% +45.3% 41% 36% +20.1%
all 207 +59.8% +44.6% 41% 36% +18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.6% 36% +18.9%
10% +30.8% 33% +7.5%
15% +18.1% 29% -2.9%
20% +6.5% 28% -12.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +66% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses85 / 122
Open positions5
Markets (closed)207 / 212
History coverage126d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 207 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+77%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-25%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$6 +625%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$15 +709%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$6 +318%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$4 +204%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$26 +1265%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +112%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $0 $0 +213%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -91%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -79%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1 +$8 +809%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$2 +94%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? Jun 04 $4 −$3 -76%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 04 $2 +$12 +579%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $1 +$5 +509%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +201%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$6 +536%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 8h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 12h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 3d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 3d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.58 · official $10.58 (match) · 762 history records