Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f3a…dda2 sports 846 markets active 15h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$69 (+2%) realized +$71 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%332W / 512L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$33
14 days−$33
30 days−$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$11
other 8% −$5
crypto 2% +$15
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -33.9% -40.2% 23% 23% -40.8%
≤30d 355 -12.3% -20.7% 31% 31% -21.2%
≤90d 842 -4.8% -13.9% 39% 38% -9.6%
all 844 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 38% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 38% -9.5%
10% -21.8% 38% -18.1%
15% -29.4% 37% -26.0%
20% -36.3% 37% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$71
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses332 / 512
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)844 / 846
History coverage92d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 844 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes 26¢ 8¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 +$4 +206%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $2 +$4 +180%
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Alexandra Eala Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Lyon: Pedro Martinez vs Felix Balshaw Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 +$3 +158%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$3 +165%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $2 +$4 +180%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 15 $2 +$4 +226%
Will Armenia vs. Moldova end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +238%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 15 $2 +$5 +262%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +152%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 08 $2 +$3 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $2 14h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski BUY Daniel Michalski 30¢ $2 23h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 24h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Zachary Svajda 29¢ $2 2d
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 30¢ $2 2d
Dublin: Clement Chidekh vs Colton Smith BUY Clement Chidekh 36¢ $2 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Ana Sofia Sanchez BUY Ana Sofia Sanchez 28¢ $2 2d
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli BUY Francesco Maestrelli 33¢ $2 2d
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 35¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 37¢ $2 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 28¢ $2 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 29¢ $2 3d
Nottingham 2: Rei Sakamoto vs Yibing Wu BUY Rei Sakamoto 36¢ $2 3d
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 36¢ $2 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $1 3d
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY No 39¢ $1 3d
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Knicks 38¢ $2 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 16¢ $2 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $2 4d
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri BUY Francesco Forti 39¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 34¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 32¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 35¢ $2 5d
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena BUY Raul Brancaccio 34¢ $2 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 37¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 38¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.89 · official $1.89 (match) · 2310 history records