Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:51:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f3b…e6e3 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+15%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days+$3
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$24
other 11% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.4% -9.1% 50% 50% -7.7%
≤30d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 53% -2.0%
≤90d 15 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 53% -2.0%
all 15 +1.2% -8.4% 53% 53% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 53% -2.0%
10% -17.2% 53% -11.4%
15% -25.2% 53% -19.9%
20% -32.5% 47% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage11d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 56¢ 56¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $15 +$26 +172%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$15 +152%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$10 +101%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$11 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +56%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.52 · official $53.52 (match) · 25 history records