Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:36:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f3f…64a2 crypto 594 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,823 (-23%) realized −$4,817 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate24%141W / 448L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$196now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$154
7 days+$337
14 days+$332
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$6,359
other 7% −$183
sports 3% +$329
finance 0% −$45
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-34.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +56.7% +41.8% 40% 40% +56.1%
≤30d 120 -13.3% -21.6% 29% 28% -9.1%
≤90d 589 -27.9% -34.8% 24% 23% -39.2%
all 589 -27.9% -34.8% 24% 23% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.8% 23% -39.2%
10% -41.0% 21% -45.1%
15% -46.7% 19% -50.4%
20% -52.0% 18% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$31 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$196
Realized−$4,817
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses141 / 448
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions5
Markets (closed)589 / 594
History coverage84d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 589 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-84%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 219 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$314 +307%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$282 +276%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 01 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 01 $3 +$5 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 01 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 01 $37 −$35 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 01 $72 +$38 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 01 $56 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 01 $46 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 01 $58 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 01 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 01 $36 −$35 -96%
Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? Jun 01 $20 +$85 +413%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 31 $2 +$3 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 31 $3 +$7 +214%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 31 $2 +$5 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $33 −$25 -76%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $48 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $10 +$1 +5%
Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship? May 27 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $32 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 27 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 27 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $27 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 27 $22 +$70 +315%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 27 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 27 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $59 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 26 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $22 −$11 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 26 $4 −$2 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 53m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 54m
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 47h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 47h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 47h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 47h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $5 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $36 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? SELL Up 21¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $195.89 · official $195.89 (match) · 1543 history records