Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9F 0x9f40…5a16 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$70 (-1%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$7
other 35% −$74
sports 13% −$2
economics 8% −$2
tech 4% +$27
crypto 2% −$18
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 +0.9% -8.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 19 +0.1% -9.4% 16% 0% -9.6%
all 40 -2.9% -12.2% 28% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.6% 2% -18.7%
15% -28.3% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.3% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$568) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage223d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $112 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $110 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $110 +$3 +3%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 12 $1,014 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $1,021 −$3 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 12 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 30 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $565 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $568 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $569 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 08 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Mar 17 $64 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Mar 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer? Feb 26 $67 −$67 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $139 +$1 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 12 $67 +$2 +2%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 12 $67 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)? Feb 12 $67 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 13, 2026? Feb 12 $69 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Feb 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $66 +$3 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $331 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on November 6? Jan 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 17 $62 +$4 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 23 $25 +$14 +56%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 30 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $110 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $112 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $112 2h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $110 26h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $110 41h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 97¢ $110 28d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,009 35d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,011 36d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $1,013 36d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $1,014 36d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,015 36d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 36d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1,018 36d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1,021 36d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $1,019 36d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $1,020 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 36d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 36d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,022 36d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,023 36d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April SELL Yes 100¢ $116 47d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $115 60d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $564 69d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $565 69d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $565 69d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $565 70d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $565 70d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $566 70d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $566 70d
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $567 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.41 · official $110.41 (match) · 98 history records