Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9F 0x9f42…1f72 sports 229 markets active 0h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$982 (+4%) realized +$1,041 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate65%148W / 80L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$262
7 days+$443
14 days+$520
30 days−$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$897
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.9% -6.0% 68% 68% -2.1%
≤30d 72 -4.6% -13.7% 62% 61% -16.2%
≤90d 228 -0.8% -10.2% 65% 63% -5.8%
all 228 -0.8% -10.2% 65% 63% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 63% -5.8%
10% -18.8% 61% -14.8%
15% -26.7% 46% -23.1%
20% -33.9% 30% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$88 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$1,041
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses148 / 80
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions1
Markets (closed)228 / 229
History coverage61d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner OG 71¢ 61¢ $405 $346 −$59 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $198 +$106 +54%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $273 −$271 -99%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $202 +$67 +33%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 23 $144 +$61 +42%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $496 +$343 +69%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $197 −$195 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $145 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $330 +$213 +64%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $241 +$81 +34%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $253 −$253 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $204 +$51 +25%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $105 −$104 -99%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $78 +$32 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $91 +$29 +31%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $91 +$59 +64%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs summer bear - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 20 $106 +$54 +51%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $56 +$54 +97%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $134 +$75 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $104 +$46 +44%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $163 +$80 +49%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $104 +$26 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $156 +$84 +54%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Playof Jun 19 $71 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $62 +$38 +61%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $179 +$45 +25%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $197 +$75 +38%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $522 +$327 +63%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $174 −$174 -100%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $166 −$165 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $110 −$109 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $89 +$55 +62%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $206 −$206 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $131 +$76 +58%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $91 +$39 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$102 -99%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima (BO3) - The International Southeas Jun 12 $148 +$42 +28%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $129 +$22 +17%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $101 +$49 +49%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $65 +$15 +23%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $122 +$38 +31%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$48 +48%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Atreides - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $164 +$109 +66%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $469 −$468 -100%
LoL: Uwinks vs New Meta (BO3) - LJL Regular Season Jun 03 $496 −$496 -100%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $5 +$1 +26%
LoL: Uwinks vs New Meta - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $109 −$109 -100%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $223 −$223 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Poor Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $52 −$52 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 66¢ $99 12m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 64¢ $5 14m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $142 15m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $1 16m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 74¢ $9 16m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 73¢ $151 16m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Rune Eaters 100¢ $305 16m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $37 57m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $16 57m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $19 57m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $19 57m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $106 57m
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 65¢ $2 57m
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 68¢ $273 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 100¢ $270 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $8 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $3 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $4 3h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 75¢ $188 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL Grind Back 100¢ $205 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 70¢ $31 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 70¢ $65 3h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 70¢ $48 3h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 100¢ $839 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $4 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $6 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $22 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $99 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $152 19h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 59¢ $11 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $345.85 · official $345.85 (match) · 645 history records